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New HLS contract must succeed within 5 years — a historic sprint

Horizontal bar chart comparing how long crewed spacecraft took from contract to first crewed flight. To land by 2030, a new Moon lander would need ~5 years—faster than any since the 1960s.

On Oct 20th, 2025, Acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy announced that the Human Landing System (HLS) contract may be reopened to new entrants in order to support astronauts landing on the Moon by 2030, expressing a notable lack of confidence in the current recipient, SpaceX. To succeed by 2030 as Duffy demands, however, a new entrant would have to develop a new human-capable spacecraft within five years — a feat last achieved by project Gemini in 1965. While not strictly impossible, it does highlight the historic challenges facing any new providers who would take on this goal.

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