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Projects: Asteroid Impact Mapping SystemA Letter from the Executive DirectorDear Member, Last year, briefly, it looked as though the unthinkable was coming true. A newly discovered asteroid -- dubbed Apophis -- appeared to be on a collision course with Earth. Its impact could annihilate a city, or set off a gargantuan tsunami. For a few tense weeks, the world’s telescopes swiveled to watch the asteroid and pinpoint its trajectory. It is now clear that Apophis will miss Earth by a few thousand miles in 2029. But what of the estimated 200,000 asteroids we haven’t yet spotted? The world is woefully unprepared to deal with them. You can help change all that! Two decades ago, when The Planetary Society first began supporting the investigation of near-Earth objects -- those vast swarms of asteroids and comets silently orbiting around our Sun -- we were pioneers in what much of the space community considered a “scientific backwater.” Not any more. Today, investigation of NEOs is recognized as urgent by virtually the entire scientific community. Yet -- despite that -- research lags, and there is still no concrete plan in place for humanity’s response if we discover an asteroid headed our way.
And as Apophis demonstrates, it could happen...indeed, it’s just a matter of time before it does happen! Although with Apophis we got advance warning -- 25 years, hopefully long enough for the world’s governmental bureaucracies to cut through red tape to design and implement a sensible response -- in the future, we might have much less time to react. What if we only got five years of advance warning...or five months? That’s a question haunting many of us in the space sciences...and that’s why, today, The Planetary Society -- with your dedicated support -- is a leader in the quest to find, track and figure out a way to avoid collisions with potentially dangerous asteroids and comets. We’re fighting hard for increased NEO research and preparation on two fronts: through our Gene Shoemaker NEO Grant Fund and, starting just recently, through an exciting joint project to analyze asteroid threats with the B612 Foundation. Quite simply, we believe that we must do more...and we can do more to vigorously expand, the hunt for these objects, and the race to find effective ways to deal with any that could threaten our planet. Nothing makes the need for this clearer than Apophis. Unfortunately, the general public knows little about it...even though it represents one of the “closest calls” in human history. Although not a “planet killer,” Apophis (at 320 meters across) would have instantly flattened a large city -- maybe even an entire region -- or, hitting the ocean, set off a tsunami the likes of which humanity has never known. Thanks to more precise observations -- the very kind that the Society’s Shoemaker Grants make possible -- we now know that the asteroid will safely pass within a few thousand miles of Earth in 2029. Yet, we’re not out of the woods. When Apophis passes us, its orbit will be dramatically altered. Right now, calculations suggest that all will be okay...but if the improbable happens, and its new solar orbit is just a few seconds more than the most likely prediction, then it will collide with Earth in 2036. And for every Apophis we know of, there may be dozens, perhaps hundreds, more. Despite the thousands of asteroids spotted and tracked so far, an estimated 200,000 of critical concern remain undiscovered. The Planetary Society is fighting that blindness. "It goes without saying that opportunities to save the world don’t come along every day ... An investigator we fund could be the one who finds a threatening asteroid early, giving us the time needed to respond...the time needed to, literally, save the world!" With our Shoemaker Fund grants, we’re supporting the asteroid hunters: brilliant investigators around the world who find, track, and study asteroids. And now we’re also helping plan an effective response to asteroid threats via our support of the B612 Foundation -- a recently created organization exclusively dedicated to that important work. I think you’ll find the work of the B612 Foundation (named after the asteroid in the children’s book, The Little Prince) particularly intriguing. Many of the people behind B612 -- which was founded just a couple of years ago -- have long associations with The Planetary Society, and we’re staunchly supportive of their efforts. B612’s primary purpose is to develop an effective response by humanity to any “killer asteroid,” that is, any large asteroid on a collision course with Earth. They argue persuasively that were a killer asteroid to be discovered -- if, say, we’d found that Apophis was going to hit the Earth directly in 2029 instead of slipping past us -- the best response would be to “nudge” it into a slightly modified orbit by applying gentle pressure for several months using a spacecraft powered by ion engines. This strategy is called “deflection,” and it’s an entirely practical response...indeed, in some cases (e.g., Apophis in 2036), we could do it with current technology. But in general, it will be an option only if the world’s space agencies get serious about filling the technological gaps...and, only if we’ve got years of advance notice, along with some effective way to notify the public and governments worldwide of the nature of the threat. The specific B612 project that we’re hoping to support is aimed at filling part of the gap by creating a system of computerized “automated” maps that will visually depict the specific narrow corridor across the face of the planet within which any given asteroid would strike. It’s a way of making the threats “real” -- for nothing focuses attention like seeing how your own home will be annihilated without intervention. And, because the corridors typically cross national boundaries, this system will also vividly show how this is a truly global danger requiring international coordination. When completed, B612 will have created an Asteroid Impact Mapping System to more quickly and accurately tell the public -- and government leaders -- about threats posed by newly found asteroids. This information will then be made widely available...in part, via our website as well as B612's. And here’s the important point for you: because it was founded and is supported by some of the space community’s leading minds, the B612 Foundation has plenty of credibility...but being new and small, it could not do this project on its own. Our support -- YOUR support -- will be crucial. Of course that’s just a small part of what you, through the Society, can do to lead the way in NEO research. There’s also our ongoing Shoemaker Fund program as well. Named after the legendary planetary geologist, Gene Shoemaker -- the man who first proved that NEO impacts had profoundly shaped our modern world’s face -- the Fund has proven an invaluable mechanism for supporting “small” (but incredibly productive!) research projects and lone investigators. In 2005, we were able to back five innovative scientists in five countries. Our funds went to upgrade telescopes, procure super-sensitive CCD cameras, and pay for innovations in optics. The problem is...we had to say “no” more often than “yes.” For every grant we made, there were several entirely worthy requests we had to turn down. As I said above, we just have to do more...and in 2006, a very good start would be to say “yes” to more of those who turn to us for help. It goes without saying that opportunities to save the world don’t come along every day. But by advancing the world’s knowledge of NEOs -- and making intelligent preparations for the day when one is found that really does have us in the cross-hairs -- you and I could do just that. An investigator we fund could be the one who finds a threatening asteroid early, giving us the time needed to respond...the time needed to, literally, save the world! We’ll be determining our 2006 Shoemaker Grant recipients soon. The researchers are counting on us...and we’re counting on you. Thank you. Sincerely,
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