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Projects: Asteroid Impact Mapping System

Facts and Sample Map

Our Asteroid Impact Mapping project is a way to openly inform the public -- in an easily understandable format --  of just who and what may be at risk when the path of a near-Earth object (NEO) passes dangerously close to Earth.

An important element in understanding any significant public safety threat is to have good information available in the public domain.  When it comes to the NEOs -- like asteroids and comets -- hitting Earth, the primary source of information in the US has been the NASA/JPL Sentry program. This program analyzes all the information gathered by the Spaceguard survey to see whether or not each NEO in the database could potentially impact Earth in the next 100 years.  In those cases where the answer is "yes," JPL places this NEO and a great deal of information about its potential impact(s) onto an "impact risk" page which is updated so often that the tables change almost daily.

While the currency and openness of this process is commendable, the format for the presentation of this critical data is not as useful as it could be.  NASA/JPL presents this data only in numerical form without an easily understood description of what a listed impact actually means or where the NEO might impact?

We've found that it is far more clear and useful to convert the tabulated data into a map with the potential impact region clearly shown. If we take the case of Apophis as an example (using data current as of January 2006), the risk tables tell us precisely when an impact might occur in 2036 (April 13, 2036 at 08:53 GMT) and what the probability of impact is (1.7 in 10,000). What the tables don't tell you is the very narrow corridor (only 32 miles wide) in which it may hit. The map shows us that, for Apophis, the corridor stretches from north of Japan across the Pacific Ocean passing north of Hawaii, then just south of the Baja Peninsula, across Central America, and out into the Atlantic Ocean off the northeast corner of South America.

Asteroid Impact Mapping System
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Asteroid Impact Mapping System
A sample map from the Asteroid Impact Mapping System. Credit: B612/The Planetary Society
Although all NEOs currently listed as impact risks have very low probability of hitting Earth, we believe the public should have access to easily understood, regularly updated information about potential NEO impacts.