Projects: Apophis Mission Design Competition

Foresight
Foresight, the winning entry in The Planetary Society's Apophis Mission Design Competition, is a small, low-cost spacecraft. The bus measures 85 by 85 by 70 centimeters. In the lower left image, it is shown against an artist's conception of Apophis. In the center image it is shown in its launch configuration atop its propulsive transfer vehicle, the rocket stage that would send it from Earth orbit to its rendezvous with the asteroid. The stack has a maximum diameter of 1.2 meters and a length of 4.04 meters, small enough to be launched by an Orbital Sciences Minotaur IV launch vehicle.

Credit: SpaceWorks / SpaceDev for The Planetary Society's Apophis Mission Design Competition

Apophis (2004 MN4) speeds toward Earth
Credit: Michael Carroll

Orbital paths of 2004 MN4 and Earth
The orbital path and positions of asteroid 2004 MN4 (dotted white line) and Earth (red line) on December 23, 2004. The asteroid is 14 million kilometers (9 million miles) away from Earth in this view. Late in 2004, the probability of an Earth impact in 2029 continued to escalate, but by early 2005 the possibility of a 2029 impact had been ruled out. Credit: NASA / B. S. Smith

Likely path of 2004 MN4 on April 13, 2029
On December 27, 2004, near-Earth object observers breathed a collective sigh of relief. Jeff Larsen and Ann Descour of the Spacewacth Observatory near Tucson, Arizona had found and measured very faint images of the asteorid on archival data dating back from March 2004. These observations enabled scientists to better understand 2004 MN4's orbit and, thus, to rule out an impact for 2029. This diagram shows the most likely path (blue line) of 2004 MN4 on April 13, 2029. Should the asteroid actually pass through a very small segment of the white line just slightly farther out than the path shown here, it could return to hit Earth on April 13, 2036. As of early 2006, the probability of this happening was about 1 chance in 12,000. Credit: NASA / B. S. Smith

Apophis (2004 MN4) impact tsunami simulation
An earthquake isn't the only way to start a tsunami -- an impact in the ocean would have a similar effect. This frame was captured from an animated simulation of an asteroid 400 meters in diameter striking in the Pacific Ocean at a velocity of 12.6 kilometers (almost 8 miles) per second. About 4 hours later, the California coastline would experience a series of tsunami waves up to about 17 meters (56 feet) high. Credit: Still from an animation by Steven Ward