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Projects: Apophis Mission Design CompetitionA Letter from the Executive DirectorDear Member,
A mountain of rock and iron is hurtling towards us from space. Apophis -- a 300-meter diameter asteroid -- is still millions of kilometers distant. But in 2029, it will make a spectacularly close passage by our planet. When it does, its orbit around the Sun will be affected. A shift of just a few hundred kilometers, and Apophis could return in 2036 to slam into Earth, creating widespread devastation. Alarming news? Sure. But what's really disturbing about the possibility of Apophis slamming into our planet -- an impact that would unleash the energy of 65,500 Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs -- is the fact that no one, anywhere, knows how to track this asteroid accurately enough right now to properly assess its danger to Earth 30 years from now. You'd think the world's space agencies would quickly seize the chance that Apophis offers to find a solution to one of the biggest threats our planet faces, but you'd be mistaken. So it's up to us -- the Members of The Planetary Society -- to make it happen, to inspire humankind to discover more about those potentially dangerous objects swarming around our solar system. You've probably read some of the media coverage about Apophis, an asteroid first discovered two years ago and named for the ancient spirit of destruction in Egyptian mythology. Apophis is just one of the hundreds, perhaps thousands of objects that will pass by Earth in the coming years. If any one of them was to hit us, thousands of square miles would be instantly incinerated. Gargantuan tsunamis would wreak devastation worldwide. It wouldn't destroy human civilization, but it could be enough to qualify as the greatest calamity in human history. Which is why we must confirm, one way or another, that there's really no chance of impact. Will Apophis pass through the "keyhole," the small area on its 2029 path that would cause it to hit Earth on its next orbit in 2036? We have to find out, because if an impact is likely to occur, we're going to need all the time possible to plan and implement space missions to deflect it away from Earth. That's why I'm writing to you. The Planetary Society, not content to wait for governments to come to the rescue, has come up with a plan to help advance our efforts to prepare for the inevitable -- whether it happens with Apophis in a few years, or another object a few decades from now. You can help us with this bold plan. And, if you act today, you'll also be able to take advantage of another exciting offer to increase the value of your donation. Read on. You see, some of the world's leading space experts -- people like Apollo 9 astronaut Rusty Schweickart -- recognize how urgent this matter is, and believe we need to act before it's too late. They know we have technology that could help save Earth from such an impact, and they're determined that we figure out how to use it. The most accurate way to track and determine the orbit of a potentially dangerous asteroid is to send a space probe there and "tag" it. But that is something that, right now, no one knows exactly how to do. With your approval and support, the Society will challenge the most innovative and brilliant minds on the planet today to design a space mission to visit Apophis and "tag" it for tracking. They may choose to affix a lander there, or orbit the rock with some kind of beacon. Whatever they come up with, the best design will be selected as the winner of The Planetary Society's Apophis Mission Design Competition. A mission like this would provide astronomers here on Earth with the highly precise telemetry they need to figure out exactly what will happen when Apophis passes Earth in 2029. More importantly, it would serve to "jumpstart" global planning for how to prevent an asteroid or comet impact. In order to make this competition happen and bring out the very best ideas, we need to raise $100,000 right away. This will help cover the prize money for the competition winners and the costs of a massive publicity campaign -- including raising public awareness about the dangers of asteroids and meteors -- processing contest entries, getting the winning project noticed, and other expenses associated with such a global endeavor. Which is why I hope you'll make a generous contribution today. In an incredibly exciting development, your gift to make this mission design competition happen will -- thanks to the generosity of a concerned Member -- be worth even more to the Society. That's right, for every two dollars you give, our Apophis Competition benefactor will match it with another dollar. What a tremendous return on your investment. You know how perfectly positioned the Society is to carry out an international contest like our Apophis Mission Competition. We have the global connections, the scientific expertise, and the backing of Members like you from around the world. We can make it happen. We're going to back this contest with a $50,000 cash reward, along with the alluring possibility that NASA or another space agency will actually transform the design into a real mission. Scientific and engineering competitions like this, as you probably know, have long been used to attract and inspire brilliant minds to solve tough problems. On first glance, asteroid tagging may seem simple enough. But right now, the space community isn't sure how to best do this. If you noticed the recent close-up pictures returned of asteroid Itokawa, you know that Apophis could very well be a loose conglomerate of boulders. A transponder might not even stick there, making it difficult to know how to do the tagging. We are in urgent need of some new ideas. A mission to tag an asteroid has never been studied. Our Competition will inspire people to come up with practical, do-able plans -- not only for the ideas people have already bandied about, but for those yet to be thought of. No doubt you're as surprised as I am that the world's space agencies have yet to design such a mission. After all, a mission like this would teach us how to approach and visit any oncoming asteroid, either for scientific investigation or for literally saving civilization. The European Space Agency has started to take the lead on this, while NASA is also beginning to look closer at asteroids. But we can do something those large organizations, with their bureaucracy and red tape, can't do: we can make it happen now. We can be the stimulus that turns long-range governmental planning into real, doable projects. And we can do it the way we always have: by leveraging our resources, knowledge, and reputation to make it happen. After all, the next Near-Earth Object to threaten Earth might not be sighted until it's nearly on top of us. We may not have the luxury of time that we've got with Apophis. That's why we've harnessed a tried-and-true mechanism in the field of space engineering: a competition drawing on the best and the brightest the world has to offer -- professional and amateur alike. We'll harness private-public cooperation to bring out the best in both. We've already determined most of the criteria for the competition. Contestants must design a mission that can approach Apophis, place the necessary gear, and provide astronomers the information they'll need to determine if the asteroid is a real threat or not. The mission plan will need to meet realistic mission constraints -- from spacecraft mass, to overall cost -- and will need to be done quickly to give humanity time to mount a deflection mission, if it's needed. At the conclusion of the Apophis Mission Competition, we'll debut the winning design at a conference attended by the space community's science and engineering professionals. And after that: it'll be on to government space centers to turn the top idea into an actual mission. I'm pleased to tell you that we're already starting to attract important attention and support for this project. In fact, Mike Griffin -- the head of NASA -- has personally told us that he's interested and would like NASA to review our results, and ESA has also pledged their support for our Competition. I guess I don't need to point out to you just how significant that is. We are also working with other space agencies -- including Japan and Russia -- to involve them in reviewing the results. Moreover, other space organizations are also expressing interest. Most significantly, the Association of Space Explorers -- the renowned group of Earth's astronauts and cosmonauts -- has agreed to cooperate, as has the leading professional organization of aerospace engineers, the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. We will expand our outreach even further. So everything is in place, except for the most important thing: your approval. In the end, after all, the Society is nothing more than your organization. This thing will happen only if you choose for it to happen. So what do you say? Is it a "go"? I've pointed out in the past that while opportunities to save the world may happen all the time in the movies, in reality they are very rare. I'm sure you agree thathelping prevent a near-Earth asteroid from smashing into us fully qualifies. Again, Apophis may not threaten us at all. Once we've captured its trajectory precisely, we may see it as just another harmless denizen of our solar system. But Apophis is not alone: millions of asteroids are out there, tens of thousands of them periodically approaching Earth. Among them -- history is our witness -- a few will, sooner or later, pose a lethal challenge to humanity. Do we wait until one is bearing down on us before we act…until no time remains to mount a meaningful response? Or do we prepare for it now? Does The Planetary Society lead, or follow? Obviously, the rational thing is to prepare, to get our plans in order, our responses ready. And that's what the Apophis Mission Competition is all about: "getting ready," and in the process, conceivably, saving the world. The world's space agencies could do it, but they're moving slowly. We can be the push they need -- you and I and all the Members of The Planetary Society. We can attract the world's best minds, find a truly fantastic proposal, and eventually hand it to NASA and other space agencies on a silver platter. All that remains is your approval. If you say yes, then please make a special, generous contribution to make this a reality. I promise that your help today will be put immediately to work. Sincerely, |
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